Критический анализ Кейнсовой экономики и международной денежной архитектуры
Источник: https://escapekey.substack.com/p/settling-keynes
Краткое содержание
Развёрнутый исторический анализ теории Кейнса в контексте послевоенного мирового порядка. Автор утверждает, что Кейнс не создал теорию управления спросом, а лишь дал политическое обоснование уже внедрённой системе. Британское правительство применяло ключевые элементы кейнсианского подхода за пять лет до публикации "Общей теории" (1936).
Международная архитектура
Система многостороннего клирингового расчёта была разработана Юлиусом Вольфом в 1892 году на Брюссельской конференции, институционализирована Банком международных расчётов (БМР) в 1930 году и формализована в полный послевоенный дизайн в отчёте Пауля ван Зеланда (1938). Кейнс адаптировал эту архитектуру в своё предложение Международного клирингового союза (1941), но проиграл США на конференции в Бреттон-Вудсе (1944).
Бреттон-Вудс не создал новую архитектуру, а переложил управление существующей системой с британского БМР на американский МВФ и Всемирный банк. БМР при этом продолжил работу как скрытый уровень координации центральных банков.
Асимметричность и дрейф
Система Кейнса предполагала симметричное давление на дефицитные и профицитные страны. Система Гарри Декстера Уайта (МВФ) давила только на заёмщиков, позволяя кредиторам (в первую очередь США) аккумулировать дефициты без коррекции. Это асимметричное давление привело к кризису внешней задолженности Латинской Америки (1982) и последующей тихой переоценке долгов странами "консервации" с поддержкой фондов.
Автор прослеживает эволюцию этой асимметрии через Вашингтонский консенсус (1989) к ESG, SDG и "блендированному финансированию", где государственные средства гарантируют убытки частным инвесторам, которые присваивают прибыль.
Контроль и концентрация власти
Трёхслойная система выигрывает: крупные инвестиционные фонды (BlackRock, Vanguard) получают инфляцию активов; фундации (Rockefeller, Gates, Carnegie) растят свои эндаументы на той же инфляции и финансируют интеллектуальные институты, которые легитимизируют архитектуру; центробанки захватывают всё большую власть и координируются через БМР вне демократического контроля.
Этика как механизм контроля
На этапе Кейнса архитектура обоснована защитой рабочих. Текущая версия обрамлена ESG, SDG и "климатической этикой". Но этика не остаётся мягким правилом — она встраивается в нормативно-правовое регулирование (как CBAM в ЕС), которое никогда не голосовалось демократически.
Значимость
Материал ревизует ортодоксную историю послевоенного экономического порядка, предъявляя документированные доказательства того, что Кейнс кодифицировал, а не изобрёл архитектуру, и что текущий дрейф системы отражает её первоначальный дизайн (концентрацию власти), а не сбой. Ключевой тезис: система работает как спроектирована — результаты совпадают с целевой функцией.
🧾 Транскрипт (формат)
Settling Keynes Source: https://escapekey.substack.com/p/settling-keynes
John Maynard Keynes is credited with solving the Depression. His General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money1, published in 1936, argued that governments should spend during downturns and save during booms, keeping employment steady by actively managing the total level of demand in the economy.
That framework became the orthodoxy of postwar economic management, and it’s still the default in every Western finance ministry and central bank.
The trouble is that its outcomes have diverged sharply from its claims.
The Royal Institute of International Affairs had already advocated abandoning the gold standard in its 1931 report2, synchronising fiscal and monetary policy in 1933, and using open market operations to manage the economy in 1935.
Britain left gold in 1931, synchronised fiscal and monetary policy followed, and open market operations were adopted — each recommendation becoming policy before the General Theory appeared. What Keynes provided was political legitimacy for a programme already under way.
The national-level framework also needed specific international conditions to work. Those conditions were being built by the same network that produced the Chatham House reports. Julius Wolf had specified the clearing architecture at the Brussels Monetary Conference in 18923. The Bank for International Settlements institutionalised it in Basel in 19304. Paul van Zeeland formalised it into a complete postwar design in his 1938 report5. By the time Keynes drafted his International Clearing Union proposal in 19416, he was developing a British variant of a programme that was already effectively settled.
He lost that contest at Bretton Woods in 1944. The American design produced the IMF and World Bank rather than his Clearing Union7. What Keynes contested was who would run the system; the architecture wasn’t in question.
The Engine and Its Constraint Counter-cyclical policy is the practice of having the state spend more during recessions and pull back during booms8. When private demand drops, government spending fills the gap. When the economy overheats, government spending is withdrawn. Central banks support this by lowering interest rates in downturns and raising them in recoveries. The idea is that it smooths output and employment, takes the edge off crises, and protects workers from the volatility of the private economy.
The postwar decades are treated as proof that it works. From 1950 to the early 1970s, Western economies grew faster, distributed income more equitably, and experienced shallower recessions than at any point in industrial history. Real wages rose and housing became affordable — the social contract held.
But what made it possible is rarely discussed.
A national government trying to run counter-cyclical policy under the gold standard runs straight into a wall. When the government spends more, people buy more — including more imports. But imports have to be paid for in gold. So the country’s gold reserves start draining. The central bank then has to raise interest rates to stop the gold flowing out, which slows the economy back down. The stimulus gets cancelled out by the need to protect the currency.
Britain experienced this directly in the late 1920s. The constraint forced the country off gold in 1931, and every industrial economy faced the same problem. Gold and counter-cyclical management couldn’t coexist9.
Bilateral clearing produced a similar constraint in a different form. A country running surpluses against Germany accumulated claims it could only spend on German goods. A country running deficits accumulated debt it had to settle by cutting imports. The adjustment burden fell on the weaker party automatically.
For the Chatham House programme to work at the national level, the gold standard constraint had to go. Countries needed room to run temporary deficits without being forced to immediately cut spending to balance their accounts. But that only worked if there was an international institution coordinating between central banks — managing the imbalances so one country’s deficit didn’t crash another country’s reserves. That was the role the BIS had been filling since 1930.
The Clearing Solution Multilateral clearing provided exactly this. Instead of each country settling its debts one-on-one in gold, everyone’s accounts ran through a central institution — like a tab. A country that was buying more than it sold didn’t have to pay up immediately. The clearing house carried the balance for a while, giving that country time to get back on track. But the country on the other side — the one selling more than it bought — also faced pressure. If it kept piling up surpluses, it got penalised. Both sides had to move towards balance, rather than the whole burden falling on the countries that owed.
This was the architecture Julius Wolf specified in 1892 at the Brussels Monetary Conference10. Walther Funk discussed the same in his July 1940 Berlin speech11. Paul van Zeeland12 mapped it into a complete postwar blueprint in his 1938 report. Keynes drafted it into his International Clearing Union proposal in 194113. The BIS had been operating it since 193014.
The form itself is neutral. Overdrafts, symmetric adjustment, time for deficits to work through — these are control-layer features added to the plumbing. Whether that plumbing supports counter-cyclical policy or obstructs it depends on how the adjustment rules are set. Three configurations from the 1940s show the range.
Three Configurations Funk’s Deutsche Verrechnungskasse15 operated from Berlin between 1940 and 194416, freezing clearing balances rather than settling them. The Reichsmark was deliberately overvalued, so occupied countries supplied Germany with goods and services and piled up Reichsmark claims that were never paid17. France finished the war with clearing balances of over eight billion Reichsmarks and Belgium with over five billion — neither was ever settled. The architecture had been configured for extraction, and counter-cyclical policy for the occupied countries was impossible — their external constraint had been maximised.
Keynes’s International Clearing Union18 went in a different direction. Every participating country would have a quota, with deficits up to the quota allowed without forced adjustment and surpluses beyond it facing penalties. The pressure would be symmetric, with the adjustment burden shared rather than landing on debtors alone, and counter-cyclical policy would be fully supported because the architecture would absorb the pressure that otherwise forced contraction.
Harry Dexter White’s International Monetary Fund19 sat between these two. Debtor countries faced adjustment pressure through conditional lending — IMF loans came with strings attached20 — but creditor countries faced none. Where Keynes wanted pressure on both sides21, White only put it on borrowers, meaning a country running persistent surpluses — which in practice meant the United States — faced no mechanism pushing it to adjust and could just keep accumulating. The asymmetry was softer than the DVK but firmer than the ICU. Rich countries running persistent surpluses could keep running them, while poor countries running persistent deficits faced IMF-imposed austerity22. Counter-cyclical policy worked for the creditors, but the debtors had to restructure under external pressure. And since the country designing the system knew it would be the dominant surplus economy for the foreseeable future, that asymmetry wasn’t an oversight.
The same mechanism produced three different policy outcomes in less than five years. The structural features were identical — central clearing institution, multilateral netting, gold as a reserve rather than a hard constraint. The only thing that changed was who set the rules — and in whose favour.
The Bretton Woods Settlement The Bretton Woods conference in 194423 is treated as the founding event of the postwar economic order, but that overstates its significance. The institutional architecture had already been mapped in Van Zeeland’s 1938 report, the monetary coordination had been tested through the 1936 Tripartite Agreement2425, and the central coordinating body — the BIS — had been operating since 1930.
What Bretton Woods actually did was give American backing and new names to a system that was already prepared.
Keynes led the British delegation and arrived with the ICU as the British position26. He contested the control layer — whether the clearing function would stay at the BIS, as he preferred, or move to a new American-sponsored institution, as Harry Dexter White preferred. The architectural features themselves weren’t in dispute. Both sides accepted central clearing, gold as a reserve, managed adjustment rules, and technocratic administration above national politics. What they argued about was where the centre would sit and whose rules would set the adjustment pressure.
The British variant lost. White’s plan produced the IMF and the World Bank, and the BIS was targeted for liquidation through Resolution V27, which passed but was never actually implemented. The Bank of England wanted the institution preserved, and once the Cold War started, the BIS’s coordination function became more important than settling accounts with a wartime collaborator, so the Americans let the resolution lapse.
What came out of it was a compromise. The IMF and World Bank became the public-facing multilateral architecture — treaty-based, accountable to member states, legally visible. The BIS continued operating as the private-facing central bank coordination layer beneath them — charter-immune, technocratic, politically inaccessible. Both layers implemented the Van Zeeland programme, but the public layer handled what could be made publicly visible and the private layer handled what couldn’t.
The American delegation that shaped this compromise wasn’t operating independently either. Harry Dexter White, who dominated the conference, has since been documented as a Soviet intelligence asset28. The Vassiliev notebooks, removed from KGB archives in the 1990s, record White under multiple codenames, and twenty-five wartime KGB documents show the agency managing him through the Silvermaster network between 1943 and 194529.
The American positions on the postwar financial architecture were shaped in part by a man who was reporting to Moscow30.
The Postwar Decades From 1950 to 1971, the compromise appeared to work. Western economies grew at unprecedented rates, unemployment stayed low, real wages rose, housing became affordable, and the social contract held. But governments mostly ran the deficits and skipped the surpluses, and the debt was quietly accumulating.
The European Payments Union31, run by the BIS between 1950 and 1958, showed the architecture working under explicit political constraint32. American Marshall Plan33 oversight imposed a defined endpoint — currency convertibility — and the EPU wound down once that was achieved34. Eighteen countries settled their trade imbalances through a single system that put pressure on both sides equally, gave deficit countries breathing room, and let counter-cyclical policy work. The architecture was doing what it was designed to do — just on a smaller scale, and with a clear end date.
What looked like the natural order of things was actually a specific setup, held in place by specific conditions. American dominance kept things in check. Capital controls stopped international money from flooding across borders and undermining what national governments were trying to do, and fixed exchange rates held until the system came under strain. The good outcomes weren’t a feature of the architecture — they only lasted as long as the political pressure keeping it in that particular setting lasted.
The breaking point arrived in 1971. America had been spending heavily on Vietnam and the Great Society35, and the dollars flowing out of the country now exceeded the gold reserves backing them. Nixon’s response was to close the gold window36 — ending the promise to exchange dollars for gold. The fixed exchange rate system collapsed, floating rates took over, and capital controls were gradually removed through the 1970s and 1980s.
Dollar hegemony survived the loss of gold because the Nixon administration secured an agreement with Saudi Arabia37 to price oil in dollars38 — anchoring the reserve currency to energy instead of metal39. Every country that needed oil now needed dollars, which kept global demand for the currency intact without any of the discipline gold had imposed.
The shift also changed what money actually represented. Under gold, money represented something that already existed — the gold sitting in a vault. Under the new system, money became a promise against future productivity — a debt passed forward to taxpayers who hadn’t yet been born.
The Drift Cutting gold loose didn’t dismantle the clearing architecture — it just reconfigured it. Central banks kept coordinating through the BIS, and exchange rates floated, but the floats were managed. The Basel Committee40 began in 1974 to coordinate banking supervision, and each progressive extension of the architecture’s authority arrived under the label of ‘technical necessity’.
Counter-cyclical policy continued to operate, but the external constraints had changed. Floating rates gave central banks more discretion, while capital market liberalisation meant national policy now had to compete with international financial flows. The framework became more dependent on central bank credibility and less on rule-based constraint.
In the West, this worked reasonably well through the 1980s and 1990s. Inflation was brought down from the 1970s highs, the business cycle appeared to moderate, and the Great Moderation41 was declared. What the moderation concealed was that the asset side of the economy had begun to inflate steadily. Housing costs rose faster than wages, equity markets delivered returns that outpaced productivity growth, and debt levels rose across every sector. Meanwhile, the debt that had quietly built up across Latin America finally buckled, with the LatAm debt crisis kicking off in 198242.
The trigger was Paul Volcker. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to nearly 20% to kill domestic inflation43, which made the dollar-denominated debt that Latin American countries had taken on through the 1970s unserviceable overnight. A domestic policy decision by the Fed crashed an entire continent — the asymmetric adjustment pressure White had built into the system, working exactly as designed.
In the mid-1980s, it’s estimated that Wall Street banks sat on $500bn of underperforming LatAm debt44, which typically traded at 20 cents on the dollar. Marking the debt to market would have incurred losses of $400bn, which would have crashed Wall Street in an instant given a net equity position of around half that. Quiet bailouts were orchestrated under ‘debt forgiveness’ programmes, where the big banks were largely made whole with taxpayer funding. Meanwhile, the debts themselves were sold off to ‘conservation’ outfits, which implemented Thomas Lovejoy’s concept of debt-for-nature swaps45 in the late 1980s46.
It was on this background that Michael Sweatman’s World Conservation Bank47 was proposed at the 4th World Wilderness Congress48. This initiative eventually became the Global Environment Facility.
The conditions imposed on debtor nations were codified in 1989 as the Washington Consensus49 — privatisation, deregulation, fiscal discipline — and became the standard template the IMF applied to every country that came to it for help. The pattern was always the same: the debtor restructured, the creditor didn’t.
In 2025, the LSE published the London Consensus50 as its explicit replacement — shifting the ethic from market liberalisation to wellbeing, resilience, and climate51. The plumbing stays. The ethic gets repainted.
The market crash in 198752 and the collapse of Barings53 called into question whether markets should be left to function on their own. South Africa and the United Kingdom were among the first to respond, embedding ethical language into corporate governance codes in the early 1990s. In parallel, the 1993 Interfaith Declaration54 — initiated by the Duke of Edinburgh, Crown Prince El Hassan of Jordan, and Evelyn de Rothschild — codified shared ethical principles across Christianity, Islam, and Judaism as guidelines for international business conduct. The language of ethics was being wired into the architecture from multiple directions at once.
On the American side, the collapse of Enron in 2001 led to the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002, which embedded ethical standards into corporate governance as a matter of law55.
The 2008 financial crisis56 revealed what had been building. Asset prices that had been inflated by borrowed money cracked, and the financial system nearly collapsed. Central banks stepped in on a scale never seen before — rates were cut to near zero across the developed world, and central banks started buying up huge quantities of government bonds and other assets in what became known as quantitative easing57. Incidentally, the concept was first discussed in the 1930s RIIA reports which led to Keynes’s General Theory.
The intervention worked in the narrow sense — the financial system was stabilised, at least for a while. Bank failures were contained, and the recession didn’t become a depression.
What happened next wasn’t what the theory called for. Rates were supposed to come back up once the crisis passed, but they stayed near zero for most of the following decade and central banks kept buying. What was meant to be emergency medicine became a permanent drip. The contraction phase never arrived — the valve was left open. When Covid hit in 2020, the response was yet another massive expansion of central bank balance sheets. The mechanism that was supposed to be extraordinary had become the default.
Had the central banks not provided the funding, most Western governments would almost certainly not have been in a position to lock down their economies during Covid.
Asset prices rose continuously. American house prices roughly doubled between 2012 and 202258, and the S&P 500 quadrupled between its 2009 low and 202459. Commercial property, fine art, collectibles, private equity holdings — every asset class that could be financed with leverage inflated. Meanwhile, wages for the median worker in most developed economies grew slowly or stagnated in real terms, and the gap between asset holders and wage earners widened continuously.
The framework producing this configuration continued to describe itself in Keynesian terms — counter-cyclical stabilisation, full employment, price stability. The outcomes didn’t exactly match the promise.
The 2008 crisis also produced Dodd-Frank in 201060, extending the regulatory reach further. Together with Sarbanes-Oxley, these laid the groundwork for Corporate Social Responsibility, which evolved into ESG.
ESG in turn gave rise to blended finance61 — where public money absorbs the downside risk so that private investors can take the upside on development and sustainability projects — and when that was coupled with the ethical framework, it produced impact investing62, where capital allocation is measured against social and environmental outcomes rather than returns alone.
The UN’s Sustainable Development Goals provided the full palette, defining seventeen categories of ‘ethical’ outcome against which capital could be directed and measured.
The logical endpoint is conditional CBDCs — programmable money that can enforce those outcomes at the point of transaction, making the ethical framework not just a reporting requirement but a feature of the currency itself.
Cui Bono? The current configuration benefits three categories. Asset holders benefit from asset inflation directly. Foundations and endowments benefit through the same mechanism while remaining tax-exempt, using their returns to fund the infrastructure that legitimises the framework. And the institutional framework that produces the accommodation benefits from the continued authority its role commands.
The largest capital pools are the first category. BlackRock manages over ten trillion dollars63, Vanguard manages over nine64, and State Street and Fidelity complete the picture of American index-fund dominance65. Their revenue comes from fees charged on assets under management, and since fees scale with asset values, sustained accommodation inflates those values and their revenue rises without them having to do anything.
In BlackRock’s case, the loop is even tighter — during the 2020 Covid response, the firm served as the Federal Reserve’s agent for its emergency bond-buying programmes, earning fees for executing the very policy that inflated the assets it manages66.
Private equity firms like Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, and Carlyle buy assets with borrowed money, hold them while central banks keep rates low and prices rising, and sell them into inflated markets. Their profits depend on cheap borrowing and rising asset prices — both of which the monetary framework delivers.
Sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, and the investment portfolios of the wealthy hold similar mixes of assets and benefit the same way.
The foundations are the second category, and they work differently. The Rockefeller Foundation, the Carnegie Corporation, the Ford Foundation, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, and others like them hold multi-billion-dollar endowments that grow tax-free as asset prices rise. Those endowments then fund the think tanks, university departments, research institutes, and NGOs that shape how the monetary framework is talked about and understood — and, increasingly, that set the ethical direction determining where public money flows.
The Rockefeller Foundation paid for the League of Nations secretariat during the war67, funded the Global Interdependence Center housed inside the Philadelphia Federal Reserve68, and donated the land the UN headquarters sits on in New York. Carnegie was the endowment that originally framed the whole architecture as being about peace. Ford funded the economics that shaped how the IMF and World Bank impose conditions on borrowing countries. Gates has become the dominant funder of global health and vaccine policy.
The pattern is the same every time — the system grows the endowments, and the endowments fund the institutions that keep the system politically acceptable.
The institutional framework is the third category. The central banking system coordinated through the BIS has grabbed more authority with each successive crisis. After 2008, central banks became the most powerful economic policymakers in most Western countries69, and elected governments now react to what central banks do rather than the other way around. That authority runs through technical standards written by committees in Basel that no population ever elected and no parliament ever instructed.
The next extension is already being prepared. In the UK, the Fabian Society’s 2023 ‘In Tandem’ report70 proposed giving the Bank of England a formal role in directing Treasury spending, using the climate transition as the justification. The pattern is familiar — every crisis is used to argue that unelected institutions need more power, not less, even when those same institutions helped cause the crisis. And once the template works in one country, the BIS rolls it out globally through its coordination function, just as it did with banking supervision through the Basel Committee.
The three categories benefit together. Large equity pools hold the assets. The foundations hold endowments that grow the same way and fund the institutions that make the whole arrangement look legitimate. The central banks produce the easy money that inflates both. Regulatory standards coordinated through the BIS favour scale, which squeezes out smaller competitors and locks in the position of the biggest players. The foundations shape how the arrangement is described and understood, and the central banks keep their authority because if they stopped, the instability would threaten the very assets the capital pools and foundations are sitting on. The net result is a massive concentration of financial capital with large equity pools and foundations, while central banks and their periphery concentrate institutional power outside democratic procedure.
None of this needs anyone sitting in a room planning it. The big equity pools benefit from easy money and lobby for it. The foundations fund the institutions that make easy money sound necessary. The central banks benefit from their own authority and lean towards keeping things loose. Regulators write standards that favour big players, big players benefit from those standards, and then push for more of them. The loop closes on its own, without anyone needing to intend the outcome.
Everyone outside that loop loses. Wage earners. Cash savers. Small businesses drowning in compliance costs. New entrants who can’t afford to buy in. Young people priced out of housing. Countries with less bargaining power in the international system.
The postwar social contract that the Keynesian framework was supposed to protect eroded for most as asset values hit record highs.
What This Means The standard account treats Keynesian economics and the international monetary architecture as separate subjects. One lives in economics textbooks, the other in institutional histories of the BIS, the IMF, and the postwar settlement. They’re taught as different fields.
The record shows they’re two sides of the same programme. The clearing architecture was designed in 1892 and institutionalised in 1930. The Chatham House reports between 1931 and 1935 laid out the national-level policy framework that needed the architecture to work. Keynes codified that into the General Theory in 1936, and Van Zeeland mapped the complete institutional arrangement in 1938. Bretton Woods implemented it in 1944 with American rather than British control of the public-facing layer, while the architecture carried on at Basel as the private-facing layer underneath. The postwar boom was one particular setting within this arrangement, held in place by American dominance, fixed rates, and capital controls.
The theory said governments should spend in downturns and save in booms, but in practice they spent in downturns and kept spending in booms because cutting is politically impossible. Deficits piled up. Central banks kept rates low to accommodate. Low rates pushed asset prices up. People who owned assets got richer while everyone else fell behind. And when the bets went wrong, the losses were passed to taxpayers through bailouts while the profits stayed private. The framework transferred wealth upward — that's what happens when no politician is willing to turn the tap off. And any who tried would lose the next election.
What Keynes really opened up was the ability for governments to spend beyond their means for political purposes. At first, that was framed as being for workers and full employment. But once the ethics infrastructure was in place — CSR, ESG, the SDGs, Hans Kung’s ‘global ethic’ — it gradually took over the steering wheel. The ethical frameworks themselves are typically promoted by NGOs that run on foundation funding, which means the same endowments that benefit from rising asset prices also shape the moral language that decides where public money goes.
Keynes provided the mechanism. The ‘global ethic’ decides what it’s used on.
The architecture has always needed a justifying ethic. Funk configured it for extraction and called it ‘serving the Reich’. Keynes configured it for balance and called it ‘serving the worker’. White configured it for American creditor interests and called it ‘free world stability’. The current version runs it through ESG, SDGs, and impact metrics and calls it sustainability. The plumbing doesn’t change, but the ethic on top does.
Each version has also pushed the control mechanism further down. Keynesian economics worked at the national level, giving governments permission to spend. Structural adjustment programmes worked at the country level, imposing conditions on debtor nations. Blended finance works at the project level, using public money to guarantee returns for private investors — typically the private equity arms of the same foundations whose endowments grow from the system. Impact investing provides the ethical overlay that justifies it. Conditional CBDCs would work at the level of the individual transaction, enforcing the ethic at the point of sale. And this is precisely the objective behind the United Nations’ push for Digital Public Infrastructure.
In a mixed economy, responsibilities are legal — written down, bounded, equally applied. In a ‘third way’ economy71, responsibilities start as ethical — voluntary codes, best practice, declarations. But ethical standards get embedded into compliance regimes, compliance regimes get embedded into regulation, and regulation becomes law.
CSR was voluntary, but ESG reporting became mandatory72. The SDGs are aspirational until they’re wired into lending conditions and trade mechanisms73 like CBAM74. The ‘ethic’ doesn’t remain ‘soft law’ — it becomes actual law that was never voted on democratically.
Objections were made at the time. The Populists opposed the gold-standard deflation that moved wealth from debtors to creditors. Charles Lindbergh Senior75 opposed the 1913 Federal Reserve Act76 because it concentrated monetary power in a body outside democratic control that would serve creditor interests. Louis McFadden kept up the critique through the 1920s and 1930s77, arguing that the Fed’s decisions served European central banking interests rather than American citizens.
For three postwar decades, the Keynesian framework appeared to answer these objections — delivering the social contract the Populists had been fighting for. The current configuration has delivered exactly what Lindbergh and McFadden warned about. What they didn’t foresee was that the concentration of monetary power would be joined by a parallel concentration of ‘ethical’ power — housed in the same foundations whose endowments the monetary framework inflates.
The system Keynes described is still there inside the framework, but the settings have changed. The outcomes now reflect how the system is actually configured, not what the theory says it should deliver, and the architecture has drifted back towards what its design naturally favours — concentration of capital, protection of creditors, suppression of wages, and the steady expansion of unelected coordinating authority into new areas.
The architecture Funk delivered in 194078, Wolf specified in 1892, Keynes codified in 1936, Van Zeeland formalised in 1938, and the BIS has been operating since 1930 is the same architecture operating now. The configuration has changed and the beneficiaries have narrowed, but the framework still describes itself in the language Keynes used to make it politically acceptable.
The outcomes no longer match the description.
The winners are the big equity pools, the foundations, the central banks and their associated agencies. The losers are the same taxpayers who were never told they bailed out Wall Street’s bad bets on Latin American debt in the 1980s — banks that gambled wrong and faced no consequences.
The debtor nations on the other side of that debt see their best lands pledged as collateral under conservation frameworks like UNESCO biosphere reserves, which are now being monetised for carbon emission permits and other ‘ecosystem services’ through the Global Environment Facility.
The banks got paid, the lands got locked up, and the same taxpayers now fund the monetisation of those lands through carbon markets they never agreed to — markets that are steadily adding the cost of carbon into the price of everything on the supermarket shelf.
The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism79 takes it further, building carbon accounting into every imported good — a tax on the consumer that no electorate ever voted for.
The same framework that channels money towards approved assets through blended finance simultaneously destroys the value of anything it designates as incompatible — fossil fuel reserves, coal infrastructure, anything that falls outside the ethic. Countries whose wealth sits in those stranded assets lose twice: their existing assets lose value while the replacements are financed through structures that guarantee returns to private investors.
Keynes claimed the intent of counter-cyclical fiscal policy was to serve the people. The system produced something radically different.
The purpose of a system is what it does.
Find my Telegram here80.
1 https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/125515/1366_keynestheoryofemployment.pdf
2 https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/1929gold_collectedpapers.pdf
3 https://www.bis.org/events/conf0506/borio.pdf
4 https://www.bis.org/about/history.htm
5 https://archive.spectator.co.uk/article/4th-february-1938/2/the-van-zeeland-report-m-van-zeelands-long-awaited
6 https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/economichistory/2023/03/10/keynes-global-bank-and-currency/
7 https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/bretton-woods-created
8 https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2010/05/counter-cyclical-economic-policy_g17a1e55/5kmfw36tj97h-en.pdf
9 https://michaelkitson.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/kitson-gold-standard-june-2012.pdf
10 https://archive.spectator.co.uk/article/3rd-december-1892/19/the-international-monetary-conference-at-brussels-
11 https://www.nytimes.com/1940/07/31/archives/funks-views-on-gold-held-distorted-here-berlin-sees-way-left-open.html
12 https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1938/feb/01/international-trade-m-van-zeelands-report
13 https://www.elibrary.imf.org/display/book/9781451972511/ch001.xml
14 https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/archive/ar1951_en.pdf
15 https://glocobank.web.ox.ac.uk/multilateral-clearing-theory-practice-deutsche-verrechnungskasse-during-world-war-ii
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17 https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03677484/
18 https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/economichistory/2023/03/10/keynes-global-bank-and-currency/
19 https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/1998/09/boughton.htm
20 https://www.tbsnews.net/thoughts/troubling-history-imf-loans-around-world-486410
21 http://imsreform.org/reserve/pdf/keynesplan.pdf
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23 https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/wwii/98681.htm
24 https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1936v01/ch15
25 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/historical/brookings/17628_03_0006.pdf
26 https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/1944-bretton-woods-conference
27 https://timeline.worldbank.org/content/dam/sites/timeline/docs/migrated/event01-brettonwoods-finalact-1849790.pdf
28 https://www.hoover.org/research/guilty-charged
29 https://www.historynewsnetwork.org/article/setting-the-record-straight-harry-dexter-white-and
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31 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/09538259.2020.1776959
32 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/files/docs/historical/eccles/049_14_0006.pdf
33 https://history.state.gov/milestones/1945-1952/marshall-plan
34 https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1950v03/d349
35 https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/nixon-shock
36 https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/gold-convertibility-ends
37 https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/uploads/agreements/tifa/asset_upload_file304_7740.pdf
38 https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/072915/how-petrodollars-affect-us-dollar.asp
39 https://www.fordlibrarymuseum.gov/sites/default/files/pdf_documents/library/document/0314/1552718.pdf
40 https://www.bis.org/bcbs/history.htm
41 https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-moderation
42 https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/latin-american-debt-crisis
43 https://fsi.stanford.edu/sipr/global-implications-feds-rate-hikes
44 https://idl-bnc-idrc.dspacedirect.org/items/9fc0685e-aec7-487a-9971-7c471dbbe0fe
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46 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-022-00930-4
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50 https://press.lse.ac.uk/books/e/10.31389/lsepress.tlc
51 https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/publications/papers/williamson0904-2.pdf
52 https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/stock-market-crash-of-1987
53 https://www.nlb.gov.sg/main/article-detail?cmsuuid=729d993f-496e-40c4-b65f-2c2a7368b6a6
54 https://s3.amazonaws.com/berkley-center/921130InterfaithDeclarationCodeEthicsBusiness.pdf
55 https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/PLAW-107publ204/pdf/PLAW-107publ204.pdf
56 https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-recession-and-its-aftermath
57 https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/quantitative-easing
58 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-home-values-changed-over-165648270.html
59 https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-just-did-first-220200637.html
60 https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/dodd-frank-act
61 https://web.archive.org/web/20250316093542/https://www.oecd.org/en/topics/sub-issues/leveraging-private-finance-for-development/blended-finance.html
62 https://thegiin.org/publication/post/about-impact-investing/
63 https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/blackrock-now-manages-over-10-trillion-in-assets-11642162013
64 https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605095123
65 https://www.ssga.com/uk/en_gb/about-us/who-we-are
66 https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/secondary-market-corporate-credit-facility
67 https://rockarch.issuelab.org/resources/27999/27999.pdf
68 https://www.interdependence.org/about/history/
69 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13563467.2025.2504405
70 https://fabians.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/FABP10475-Tract-Special-231107-WEB.pdf
71 https://www.britannica.com/topic/third-way
72 https://kpmg.com/xx/en/our-insights/esg/the-move-to-mandatory-reporting.html
73 https://desapublications.un.org/policy-briefs/un-desa-policy-brief-no-170-special-issue-reimagining-financing-sdgs-filling-gaps
74 https://taxation-customs.ec.europa.eu/carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism_en
75 https://www.congress.gov/63/crecb/1913/09/15/GPO-CRECB-1913-pt5-v50-11-2.pdf
76 https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/fract.htm
77 https://archive.org/details/pdfy-ed9k_Ns-KZhp3WOn
78 https://dn720001.ca.archive.org/0/items/funk-walther-the-economic-reorganization-of-europe-25-july-1940/Funk%2C_Walther_The_Economic_Reorganization_of_Europe_25_July_1940.pdf
79 https://www.oecd.org/en/blogs/2025/03/eu-carbon-border-adjustment-mechanism-what-is-it-how-does-it-work-and-what-are-the-effects.html
80 https://t.me/escapekey